Latinos' Shift Away From Republicans Leaves Democrats Worried.
In a significant shift, President Donald Trump's base – particularly Latino voters – appears to be unraveling less than a year into his second term. The Republican losses and Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia suggest that the backlash against Trump has finally arrived, potentially spelling trouble for the GOP coalition he relied on to win the 2024 election.
In New Jersey, exit polls indicate that Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill won nearly 70% of Latino voters, a stark reversal from Trump's narrow victory in 2024. While some may interpret this as a sign that disillusioned Trump supporters are returning to the Democrats, others believe that many simply chose to sit out this election.
To understand the significance of these results, Carlos Odio, co-founder of Democratic-leaning research firm Equis, offered his insights. Heading into the election, Odio's primary question was whether Latino voters would behave more like in 2021, with lower but steady support for Democrats, or in 2024, when Trump made significant gains.
The answer seems to be that Latino voting patterns are leaning back toward a more normal off-year election, similar to pre-Biden era levels. This is not necessarily bad news for Democrats, as it suggests that Latino support will remain equivalent to what it was before the Biden presidency. However, some might view this as a modestly disappointing result.
For Odio, the shift in voting patterns has important implications for the midterm elections and beyond. While results from 2025 may not directly predict outcomes in 2028, they do provide a more reliable benchmark for expectations in 2026. Moreover, the trend suggests that low-propensity voters – those who don't typically vote but might turn out under certain circumstances – are becoming increasingly sensitive to environmental factors.
Ultimately, Odio's analysis highlights the complexity of Latino voting behavior and the need to separate persuasion from abstention among these voters. The fact that 11% of Latino Trump voters say they'd consider voting for a Democrat in 2026 is a significant chunk, and it underscores the ongoing struggle within Trump's base.
In a significant shift, President Donald Trump's base – particularly Latino voters – appears to be unraveling less than a year into his second term. The Republican losses and Democratic victories in New Jersey and Virginia suggest that the backlash against Trump has finally arrived, potentially spelling trouble for the GOP coalition he relied on to win the 2024 election.
In New Jersey, exit polls indicate that Democratic Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill won nearly 70% of Latino voters, a stark reversal from Trump's narrow victory in 2024. While some may interpret this as a sign that disillusioned Trump supporters are returning to the Democrats, others believe that many simply chose to sit out this election.
To understand the significance of these results, Carlos Odio, co-founder of Democratic-leaning research firm Equis, offered his insights. Heading into the election, Odio's primary question was whether Latino voters would behave more like in 2021, with lower but steady support for Democrats, or in 2024, when Trump made significant gains.
The answer seems to be that Latino voting patterns are leaning back toward a more normal off-year election, similar to pre-Biden era levels. This is not necessarily bad news for Democrats, as it suggests that Latino support will remain equivalent to what it was before the Biden presidency. However, some might view this as a modestly disappointing result.
For Odio, the shift in voting patterns has important implications for the midterm elections and beyond. While results from 2025 may not directly predict outcomes in 2028, they do provide a more reliable benchmark for expectations in 2026. Moreover, the trend suggests that low-propensity voters – those who don't typically vote but might turn out under certain circumstances – are becoming increasingly sensitive to environmental factors.
Ultimately, Odio's analysis highlights the complexity of Latino voting behavior and the need to separate persuasion from abstention among these voters. The fact that 11% of Latino Trump voters say they'd consider voting for a Democrat in 2026 is a significant chunk, and it underscores the ongoing struggle within Trump's base.
newsflash: trump's magic didn't work on this group anyway. i feel bad for republicans tho, they gotta figure out why their own party members aren't supporting them anymore lol democrats should be happy tho, it seems like they finally won over some latinos but let's be real, latino votes are always gonna be super swingy 
I'm not surprised to see Latinos shifting away from Republicans. It's been pretty obvious that Trump's policies haven't exactly won them over 
. But what concerns me is how this shift will play out in future elections. I mean, if Latino voters are going back to a more normal level of support for Democrats, that's one thing... but at the same time, it's also kinda weird that they're not exactly flocking back to the GOP like you'd think 
.
. It's all well and good that some 11% of Latino Trump voters might consider voting for a Democrat in 2026... but what about the other 89%? Where are they?
. But seriously, it's interesting to see how Latino voting patterns are shifting back towards normal levels. I mean, 70% for a Democrat is crazy! 
What does this mean for the midterms and beyond? Does it mean Democrats will be more competitive in swing states? 
, but I don't think it's that bad news for them. If anything, it means they're not reliant on a specific group of voters to win elections. And let's be real, if the Republican base is unraveling less than a year into Trump's second term, that's gotta be a good sign for Democrats 
what does this mean for trump's party going forward tho? will they be able to regain their footing or are they gonna be stuck on the sidelines forever