In the wake of New START's expiration, a new proposal has emerged that could potentially take its place: leveraging satellite surveillance and artificial intelligence to monitor nuclear arms. The plan, dubbed "cooperative technical means," relies on satellites to track key facilities like intercontinental ballistic missile silos and plutonium production sites.
The AI component would sift through the data, identify patterns, and flag any anomalies. Human reviewers would then verify these findings to ensure accuracy. While this approach has its limitations, proponents argue it could serve as a stopgap measure in the absence of on-site inspections.
One major hurdle lies in the need for cooperation between nations. A reliable AI system requires large datasets, but these are often country-specific and may not be readily available or consistent. Moreover, there's an inherent complexity to AI itself β including issues with explainability and trustworthiness.
Critics caution that relying on imperfect AI systems could undermine the effectiveness of any new treaty regime. With nuclear arms proliferation on the rise, this proposal might provide a small but necessary bridge.
The AI component would sift through the data, identify patterns, and flag any anomalies. Human reviewers would then verify these findings to ensure accuracy. While this approach has its limitations, proponents argue it could serve as a stopgap measure in the absence of on-site inspections.
One major hurdle lies in the need for cooperation between nations. A reliable AI system requires large datasets, but these are often country-specific and may not be readily available or consistent. Moreover, there's an inherent complexity to AI itself β including issues with explainability and trustworthiness.
Critics caution that relying on imperfect AI systems could undermine the effectiveness of any new treaty regime. With nuclear arms proliferation on the rise, this proposal might provide a small but necessary bridge.