Syria’s Fragile Stability: A Threat from Within

The recent bombings in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit are a stark reminder of the precarious nature of stability in Syria. With foreign investment yet to materialize and sanctions relief still in its infancy, the Assad government faces old and new threats to its grip on power.

One significant challenge for President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s government is the presence of various armed groups within the country. These include remnants of the ISIL (ISIS) group, which still boasts between 1,500 and 3,000 fighters across Syria and neighboring Iraq. According to Aron Lund, a fellow at Century International, “ISIL ‘is still around and still active.’ You just need a couple of guys to make and plant a bomb to create an outsized impact.” This reality is particularly sobering given the government’s efforts to project a sense of normalcy and attract tourism and investment.

The presence of armed groups within Syria raises questions about the rule of law and the extent to which local militias have co-opted into the army. As Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst with the Crisis Group, notes, “Syria’s remaining opponents fall into three distinct categories: ISIL cells seeking to undermine the new order through attacks from within government-held areas, former regime remnants acting as scattered spoiler networks through sabotage, and armed actors in Suwayda and the northeast retaining the capacity to use force to contest how Damascus governs and integrates them.”

Forces loyal to the former regime also pose a threat. Billionaire Rami Makhlouf has been funneling money from exile in Moscow to Alawite forces in Syria. In a recent video message, Makhlouf warned the government in Damascus that “when I say I’ll do something, I do it,” highlighting the challenges facing al-Sharaa.

The internal threats to al-Sharaa’s government may come from quarters he once relied upon. In securing his rapid advance in December 2024, al-Sharaa drew heavily from forces affiliated with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rival groups. However, after the initial euphoria of al-Assad’s ousting came the harsh reality of governing a country devastated by war and economic sanctions.

The recent sanctions relief announced in June 2025 may prove crucial to securing future investment but also risks undermining much of al-Sharaa’s backing among conservative young men who were critical in helping him seize power. Hawach notes that Syria’s remaining opponents fall into three distinct categories, each with different aims and methods. The challenge for al-Sharaa is balancing these competing demands while maintaining stability and attracting investment.

The situation in Syria serves as a stark reminder of the complexities and nuances of conflict resolution. As foreign powers continue to exert influence over the region, it’s essential to recognize that the path to stability will not be easy or straightforward. Al-Sharaa’s government must navigate the competing demands of various armed groups, factions, and external actors while addressing the deep-seated economic and social challenges facing the country.

Ultimately, the future of Syria hangs in the balance. As al-Sharaa struggles to maintain stability and attract investment, it’s clear that the road ahead will be fraught with challenges. But one thing is certain: the Syrian people deserve a government that can provide them with basic security, economic opportunities, and a chance to rebuild their shattered lives.