Putin’s Posturing: A Ruse to Scare Off Western Support for Ukraine?

Suha Kidwai’s report on Vladimir Putin’s repeated threats against the UK and NATO over Ukraine highlights a stark reality: Moscow’s sabre-rattling is largely empty. Experts, such as Katia Glod from the New Eurasia Strategies Centre (NEST) think tank, suggest that Putin’s aggressive posturing is a poor attempt to scare off broader Western support for Kyiv.

The history of UK-Russia tensions reveals a pattern of meddling. For decades, Moscow has used London as a staging ground for actions meant to garner global attention while denying direct involvement. The 2006 assassination of Alexander Litvinenko and the Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal are examples within this context. More recently, Russia was found to have recruited proxies to set fire to a Ukrainian-owned commercial facility in March 2024 at Leyton warehouse. Additionally, the Russian vessel Yantar’s reconnaissance near the UK’s critical underwater infrastructure in 2024 and 2025 is part of a broader pattern of hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia.

Instead of a direct military strike on the UK, Putin is more likely to pursue hybrid attacks. These non-military actions can include cyber-crime, harassing diplomats, recruiting criminals on British soil, or approaching British airspace and waters. Glod notes that these tactics are not solely in response to the UK’s supply of drones to Ukraine but rather part of a long-standing strategy.

Putin faces conflicting objectives: signalling that helping Ukraine will face retaliation while avoiding direct action against NATO members. His failure to follow through on threats has led to a waning of Russian credibility. The implications are significant: Russia is severely constrained in how it can retaliate against Ukrainian deep strikes without risking a larger war with the West.

This reality highlights the limitations of Putin’s strategy and suggests that Moscow’s reliance on unfulfilled threats has done little other than expose its weakness. While an open military assault remains unlikely, concerns over British air defence capabilities have been raised. Russia does possess the capacity to strike the UK using its missile systems in Belarus, but Glod notes that a direct missile strike is improbable due to Russia’s awareness of NATO’s collective response.

The UK’s lack of air defence capacity to defend against an air attack has sparked worry among security experts. However, several European allies rely on US-made Patriot air defence systems, and the UK does not field these systems. Despite this, Glod stresses that a direct missile strike remains improbable due to Russia’s reluctance to engage in active war with the UK.

As tensions escalate and hybrid warfare tactics become increasingly prevalent, it becomes clear that Putin’s posturing is a ruse designed to scare off Western support for Ukraine. While these threats should be taken seriously, they are ultimately empty – a reflection of Moscow’s weakness rather than strength.