Missile Misgivings: A War of Attrition Exposes US Readiness

The prolonged conflict with Iran has taken a toll on the US Army’s stockpile of long-range precision missiles. The depletion of ATACMS and PrSM missiles is a stark reminder that even the most advanced militaries can be vulnerable to wear and tear.

President Trump claimed that the US has “far more munitions than anyone in the world,” but the reality on the ground tells a different story. The heavy use of ATACMS and PrSM reflects the administration’s preference for attacking Iranian targets from a distance, but this strategy comes at a cost. The war with Iran has forced officials to tap into global stocks and accelerate production.

The depletion of missile stocks raises questions about the US military’s ability to respond to multiple crises simultaneously. Approximately 65% of Patriot interceptors were used between February and July, while THAAD ballistic-missile interceptors fell by at least 38%. Record production rates may not be sufficient to replenish stocks quickly enough during a prolonged high-intensity conflict.

Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of ATACMS and PrSM, has been shifting production towards the newer PrSM as the Army phases out ATACMS. However, this shift may not be enough to address the immediate needs of the military. The pressure on stocks is further exacerbated by the US defense industry’s attempts to increase production.

The war with Iran has also sparked concerns about the adequacy of US defensive stocks. Just under half of its global Tomahawk cruise-missile stockpile was used since the beginning of the war, highlighting the strain on supplies. The reliance on replenishing supplies from global stocks raises questions about sustainability.

The situation is complicated by the administration’s willingness to escalate the war. While some reports attribute Trump’s decision not to proceed with additional strikes partly to military concerns over weapons supplies, a US official told Reuters that pressure from Gulf states was the primary reason. This highlights tension between diplomatic and military considerations in the midst of conflict.

The depletion of missile stocks is not an isolated incident; it’s a symptom of a broader trend. The prolonged nature of modern warfare has led to increased wear and tear on military supplies, forcing officials to reassess strategies and tactics. As the US navigates its relationships with countries like China, it’s essential to consider the implications of this depletion.

In the short term, replenishing stocks and accelerating production will be crucial. This will require a concerted effort from the defense industry, policymakers, and military leaders. In the long term, however, it’s essential to reevaluate the strategy of using long-range precision missiles as the primary tool for engaging enemy targets. The depletion of missile stocks serves as a stark reminder that even the most advanced militaries can be vulnerable to wear and tear.

The war with Iran has exposed vulnerabilities in the US military’s supply chain, but it also presents an opportunity for growth and improvement. Prioritizing military preparedness and adapting strategies accordingly will be essential as the US continues to engage in prolonged conflicts.