El Nino’s Perfect Storm of Suppression

The Atlantic Ocean has been unusually calm so far this hurricane season, thanks in large part to a powerful El Nino event that’s suppressing storm development. Experts caution against complacency because, despite the record slow storm season, it’s not time to relax.

One key factor behind this quiet season is the unprecedented level of wind shear in the Atlantic. Wind shear occurs when strong easterly winds clash with westerly winds at different altitudes, essentially tearing apart any would-be storms before they can develop. With wind shear levels 45 mph higher than what a tropical cyclone can withstand, it’s no wonder that not a single hurricane has formed this year.

El Nino is also bringing an abundance of dry air to the Atlantic, starving storms of the moisture they need to survive. African dust is choking what little storm activity there is, while high pressure is pushing air downward and further hindering development.

The El Nino Effect: A Tale of Two Oceans

While the Atlantic is experiencing a drought of hurricane activity, other parts of the world are feeling the opposite effects thanks to the same El Nino event. In the eastern Pacific, storm activity is nearly double normal, with hurricanes lasting much longer than usual. In the central Pacific, activity is about 40% higher than normal.

This dichotomy highlights one of the most interesting aspects of El Nino: its ability to rev up tropical cyclone activity in some parts of the world while suppressing it in others. Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at MIT, notes that what matters more than just water temperature is the difference in temperature between the air and the water – and right now, that difference is working against the Atlantic.

The Aftermath: What This Means for Next Season

As El Nino winds down and cools closer to normal, the warm water in the Atlantic will persist, increasing the likelihood of storm activity next year. This has significant implications for communities along the eastern seaboard, who may need to prepare for a more active hurricane season.

The persistence of warm water also underscores that El Nino is not just a short-term phenomenon but rather a long-term climate pattern with far-reaching consequences. As Kristen Corbosiero, an atmospheric science professor at the University at Albany, points out: “This is not just about numbers and statistics; it’s about people’s lives.” By keeping this in mind as we navigate the complexities of El Nino, we can work towards creating a more resilient – and equitable – society.

The Role of Prediction

While scientists have been predicting a slow Atlantic hurricane season for months, the actual outcome has been even quieter than expected. This raises questions about the role of prediction in meteorology and whether we’re better off relying on short-term forecasts or long-term climate trends. In an era where climate change dominates headlines, it’s essential that we prioritize scientific research and forecasting to make more informed decisions about how to prepare for – and respond to – extreme weather events.

The absence of destructive hurricanes this year means that resources will continue to be diverted away from areas that need them most. As the Atlantic continues to simmer in silence, let us remember that complacency is not an option. With El Nino still exerting its influence over the world’s oceans, it’s essential that we stay vigilant – and prepared – for whatever storms may come our way next season.