China's trade surplus is crippling manufacturing industries worldwide, sparking a reevaluation of the international economic order. The country's ballooning exports, fueled by a 20% increase to $1.2 trillion in 2025, are outstripping global demand and sending shockwaves across rich and poor nations alike.
Critics argue that China's mercantilistic policies are the root cause of this imbalance, as the country focuses on fueling its own economic growth through exports, rather than investing in domestic consumption. The result is a trade surplus that's stifling manufacturers worldwide, from Europe to Asia and Latin America.
The irony is that China's export-led strategy was initially seen as a key driver of globalization, but it has now become a major obstacle to the very system it helped create. As Eswar Prassad notes, "Forget Trump's Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China's Trade Surplus."
America's fragility and its turn against the global order did not happen by chance; it was largely a result of its own inability to adapt to an increasingly interconnected world. While other countries have struggled with the consequences of globalization, Americans were particularly hard hit as manufacturing declined in their domestic market.
However, China's actions are not blameless. The country's export wave is driving changes in global trade policies and institutions. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has seen over 300 antidumping investigations since 2020, largely targeting Chinese exports.
The EU now agrees with the US that the WTO no longer works, calling for a new system of global trade governance fit for the 21st century. Maroš Šefčovič, the EU commissioner for trade, argues that it's time to jettison the "most favored nation" rule, which has become a stumbling block in trade negotiations.
As China seeks to preserve its influence on the world stage, it must understand that its strategy is putting enormous stress on international economic institutions. If Beijing wants to maintain a liberal trading regime, it needs to reconsider its mercantilistic policies and focus on domestic consumption.
China's household spending amounts to only 40% of GDP, compared with 60% in OECD nations, suggesting that the country still has much work to do in building prosperity for its citizens. By sticking to its export-led strategy, China risks eroding faith in a trading system it has benefited from so greatly.
As the US retreats into itself, offering an opportunity for China to become a global leader, Beijing must choose between pursuing its current path and working towards a more balanced economic model that prioritizes domestic consumption. The world is watching, and China's next move will determine the future of globalization.
Critics argue that China's mercantilistic policies are the root cause of this imbalance, as the country focuses on fueling its own economic growth through exports, rather than investing in domestic consumption. The result is a trade surplus that's stifling manufacturers worldwide, from Europe to Asia and Latin America.
The irony is that China's export-led strategy was initially seen as a key driver of globalization, but it has now become a major obstacle to the very system it helped create. As Eswar Prassad notes, "Forget Trump's Tariffs. The Real Danger Lies in China's Trade Surplus."
America's fragility and its turn against the global order did not happen by chance; it was largely a result of its own inability to adapt to an increasingly interconnected world. While other countries have struggled with the consequences of globalization, Americans were particularly hard hit as manufacturing declined in their domestic market.
However, China's actions are not blameless. The country's export wave is driving changes in global trade policies and institutions. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has seen over 300 antidumping investigations since 2020, largely targeting Chinese exports.
The EU now agrees with the US that the WTO no longer works, calling for a new system of global trade governance fit for the 21st century. Maroš Šefčovič, the EU commissioner for trade, argues that it's time to jettison the "most favored nation" rule, which has become a stumbling block in trade negotiations.
As China seeks to preserve its influence on the world stage, it must understand that its strategy is putting enormous stress on international economic institutions. If Beijing wants to maintain a liberal trading regime, it needs to reconsider its mercantilistic policies and focus on domestic consumption.
China's household spending amounts to only 40% of GDP, compared with 60% in OECD nations, suggesting that the country still has much work to do in building prosperity for its citizens. By sticking to its export-led strategy, China risks eroding faith in a trading system it has benefited from so greatly.
As the US retreats into itself, offering an opportunity for China to become a global leader, Beijing must choose between pursuing its current path and working towards a more balanced economic model that prioritizes domestic consumption. The world is watching, and China's next move will determine the future of globalization.